The U.S. index hits a three-month high at the 100 mark, and the U.S. government shutdown deadlock is about to break the historical record

On November 5, in early trading in Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 100.15. On Tuesday, as disagreements within the Federal Reserve raised doubts about the prospect of another interest rate cut this year, the U.S. dollar index continued its gains and exceeded the 100 mark, hitting a three-month high. It finally closed up 0.33% at 100.18. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finally closed at 4.090%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 3.586%. Due to the strength of the US dollar, spot gold continued to fall and accelerated its decline during the US trading session. It once fell below the US$3,930 mark and finally closed down 1.71% to US$3,932.11 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed down 1.9% to US$47.15 per ounce. Crude oil fell as weak manufacturing data and a strong U.S. dollar suppressed demand. WTI crude oil fluctuated widely around $60 and finally closed down 0.94% at $60.25/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.82% at $64.13/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 100.15. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, Chairman Jerome Powell said there would not necessarily be another rate cut in December. Traders have adjusted accordingly, with CME's FedWatch tool now showing a 65% chance of a rate cut in December, down sharply from 94% a week ago. Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above resistance at 100.00–100.15. If this attempt is successful, the USD Index will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.85–102.00 range.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1484. The euro weakened further on Tuesday as rising demand for the U.S. dollar put pressure on the pair. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, was trading steadily around 100.20, hitting a three-month high. The euro's decline appears to be mainly due to a rebound in demand for the dollar, with little impetus within the euro zone. The lack of major economic data releases leaves the single currency exposed to broader dollar trends. Technically, if EUR/USD manages to close below 1.1500, it will move towards the next support level at 1.1400–1.1415. The RSI is approaching oversold territory, but there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum if the right catalyst emerges.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3016. GBP/USD fell further on Tuesday, www.ehadb.cnpletely breaking the 1.3100 mark. As the pound continued to fall, it fell by about 0.9% in a single day. GBP/USD has ended flat or lower on all but two of the past 12 consecutive trading days as GBP/USD fell for a third consecutive week of one-sided losses. Technically, the nearest support level for GBP/USD is in the 1.3015–1.3030 range. A break below the 1.3015 level will push GBP/USD towards the next support level at 1.2885–1.2900.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Wednesday, gold hovered around 3934.68. Gold extended its correction on Tuesday, hitting a three-day low amid a sharply stronger U.S. dollar. Precious metals continued to www.ehadb.cne under pressure as markets lowered expectations for a December interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, but lower U.S. Treasury rates appeared to help curb losses for now.

Technical: Gold fell below the mildly bullish 20 moving average and is currently at $4,088. Meanwhile, the longer moving averages remain below current levels, providing longer-term support: the 100 SMA is developing near $3,596, while the 200 SMA climbed to $3,359, supporting the broader uptrend. Finally, the Momentum indicator has accelerated its move south, well below its 100 midline, while the RSI indicator has slipped to 48, signaling weakening bullish strength and tilting risks to the downside. To sum up, the oscillators warn of entering a correction phase, while the trendPossible indicators remain positive; a daily close above the 20SMA $4,088 may revive the bullish bias, while failure to reclaim it may continue to put pressure on the $3,596/$3,359 dynamic support.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Wednesday in the Asian market, crude oil was trading around 60.04. Oil prices ended lower on Tuesday, weighed down by a stronger dollar and concerns about the outlook for oil demand. The decline in oil prices was mainly due to pressure from two aspects: on the one hand, the U.S. dollar strengthened to a four-month high; on the other hand, weak manufacturing data raised concerns about the outlook for global oil demand. Oil prices are feeling pressure from the high valuation of the U.S. dollar and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Meanwhile, sharp losses on Wall Street also heightened concerns about the economic outlook and domestic fuel demand.

Technical aspect: WTI crude oil futures fluctuated in the last trading day, trying to gain greater upward momentum to support its recovery and rise again, but the price still relies on the support of the 50-day moving average, which strengthens the stability of the current rising market. These moves www.ehadb.cne as a bullish corrective trend dominates the short-term and trades along the move's supporting trendline, while the Relative Strength Index forms a bullish crossover after emerging from overbought conditions, paving the way for gains to materialize in the near future.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on November 5, 2025

17:00 Eurozone October service PMI final value

17:30 UK October service PMI final value

18:00 Euro Yuan District September PPI monthly rate

21:15 U.S. ADP employment in October

22:45 U.S. S&P Global Services PMI final value in October

23:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI

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23:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to October 31

23:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the United States for the week until October 31

23:30 EIA strategic petroleum reserves in the United States for the week until October 31 Prepare inventory

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