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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Trump's probability of winning the U.S. tariff case decreases, gold prices benefit from safe-haven buying, and oil prices hit the lowest in two weeks." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (November 6, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$3,970 per ounce. Despite the strong performance of the US ADP private employment data, Gold prices still strengthened significantly on Wednesday, driven by safe-haven buying, rising by more than 1%. Global stock market shocks and concerns about AI stock bubbles jointly stimulated safe-haven demand; U.S. crude oil traded around $59.63 per barrel, and oil prices hit their lowest closing price in two weeks on Wednesday. Market concerns about global oil supply glut continue to ferment, becoming the main factor suppressing oil prices.
After a sharp sell-off on Tuesday, U.S. stocks rebounded across the board on Wednesday. Optimistic corporate earnings reports and better-than-expected economic data eased investors' concerns about the valuation of technology stocks, pushing the three major stock indexes to close higher. The Dow Jones rose 0.48%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed up 0.37% and 0.65% respectively.
Although JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon's warning that asset prices are too high has slowed the rally, the market still views the previous sell-off as a healthy correction.
The national employment report released by ADP showed that private employment rebounded in October, adding 42,000 jobs. However, the labor market still shows signs of weakness, with some industries continuing to lay off workers. A separate report showed that the U.S. services sector is still expanding but faces job losses and the highest input costs in nearly three years.
The gridlock in Congress has led to the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, forcing investors and the data-reliant Federal Reserve to rely on data www.ehadb.cnpiled by the private sector to judge the state of the economy.
In terms of individual stocks, McDonald’sLowe rose 2.2% as its promotional activities drove same-store sales to exceed expectations; Bank of America closed down 2.0% despite raising its profit target; Super Micro dropped 11.3% as its performance fell short of expectations.
Analysts pointed out that the current performance of 83% of S&P 500 www.ehadb.cnpanies exceeded expectations, and third-quarter profits increased by 16.2% year-on-year, far exceeding the early quarter forecast. Coupled with traditional year-end market expectations, investors are looking at short-term fluctuations with a "buy the dip" mentality.
Despite the strong performance of the US ADP private employment data, gold prices are still significantly stronger driven by safe-haven buying. Spot gold prices rose 1.3% to close at $3,983.89 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures for December delivery closed up 0.8% at $3,992.90.
Market analysis pointed out that although strong employment data usually means that interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time, global stock market shocks and concerns about AI stock bubbles have jointly stimulated safe-haven demand. Traders said gold rose on the back of stronger-than-expected employment data, a performance that pleased bulls.
At the same time, precious metals such as silver, platinum and palladium followed suit across the board, with increases reaching 2.2%, 1.7% and 2.4% respectively. Investors are closely watching the U.S. Supreme Court hearing on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which will bring new policy uncertainty to the market.
The U.S. Supreme Court held oral arguments on Wednesday on the legality of Trump's massive reciprocal tariffs. In addition to the liberal justices of the Supreme Court, many conservative justices have also questioned the legality of Trump's tariffs. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts said that Trump's tariffs are taxes on Americans, which has always been the core power of Congress. Among the three justices appointed by Trump as president, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett also raised questioning questions and delved into the arguments of tariff opponents.
Oil prices continued their decline on Wednesday, with Brent crude oil and U.S. crude oil closing down 1.43% and 1.59% respectively, at US$63.52 and US$59.60 per barrel, both hitting their lowest closing prices in two weeks. Market concerns about global oil supply glut continue to ferment, becoming the main factor suppressing oil prices.
Data from the U.S. Energy www.ehadb.cnrmation Administration showed that crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 5.2 million barrels last week, far exceeding market expectations of 603,000 barrels, reflecting the dual pressures of weak refining activity and rebounding imports. However, signs of strong demand for gasoline inventories, which fell by 4.7 million barrels, eased the decline in oil prices to a certain extent.
In terms of geopolitics, the Russian port of Tuapse has suspended fuel exports due to Ukrainian drone attacks, and the Canadian government may lift oil and gas emission caps. These factors have www.ehadb.cnbined to intensify the market's www.ehadb.cnplex expectations for the supply pattern.
The budget plan announced by Canadian Prime Minister Carney on Tuesday showed that CanadaCanada may lift caps on oil and natural gas emissions, fueling concerns about a potential oversupply. Elsewhere, Russia's Black Sea port of Tuapse is understood to have suspended fuel exports, while its refinery has also halted crude processing following Ukrainian drone attacks on its infrastructure on Sunday.
The U.S. dollar remained volatile near a five-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, with strong economic data continuing to support the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index was basically unchanged at 100.16 on the day, maintaining its highest level since late May.
Data showed that the number of private jobs in the United States increased by 42,000 in October, far exceeding expectations. At the same time, service industry activity also showed a rebound, which eased market concerns about an economic slowdown. Strategists noted that strong labor data weakened the case for aggressive monetary easing and investors were reassessing the outlook for interest rates.
Risk sentiment picked up in the foreign exchange market during the session, with the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rebounding 0.3%, while the safe-haven Japanese yen gave up its earlier gains.
The market is paying close attention to the U.S. Supreme Court’s hearing on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, which may reshape the global trade and exchange rate pattern. The pound has taken a breather after recent weakness as the market awaits interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Norway's central bank.
The U.S. Supreme Court held oral arguments on Wednesday on the legality of Trump’s large-scale reciprocal tariffs. In addition to the liberal justices of the Supreme Court, many conservative justices have also questioned the legality of Trump's tariffs. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts said that Trump's tariffs are taxes on Americans, which has always been the core power of Congress. Among the three justices appointed by Trump as president, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett also raised questioning questions and delved into the arguments of tariff opponents. The Supreme Court has a majority of conservative justices, with a ratio of 6:3. The Supreme Court is likely to announce its decision in December. The prediction platform Polymarket recently gave Trump a 27% probability of winning the case, which was lower than 40% before the debate, and briefly fell to a new low of 18% during the hearing.
A memo shows that the Bank of Canada plans to lay off 10% of its employees, involving about 225 employees, in response to Prime Minister Carney’s (formerly Governor of the Bank of Canada and Governor of the Bank of England) request to save government spending. The layoffs will take place over the next few months and will be www.ehadb.cnpleted by the end of June 2026. This is part of the bank's efforts to achieve its target of reducing budget costs by 10% by the end of 2026. The bank is also www.ehadb.cnmitted to achieving 15% budget cuts between 2026-28 and has pledged to cut corporate-level spending by a further 5% by the end of 2028.
On the 5th local time, Russian President Putin held a federal security meeting to discuss the United States’ intention to resume nuclear tests and other issues. Putin listened to reports from Russian Defense Minister Belousov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gerasimov and others. Putin said that if the United States or other parties to the www.ehadb.cnprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty conduct nuclear tests, Russia will definitely take reciprocal countermeasures. Putin tasked the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, various special departments and relevant agencies to conduct research and judgment and submit recommendations coordinated by all parties.
The European Council announced on the 5th that member states have reached an agreement on amending the European Climate Law and formed a position paper. The European Council also approved the update of the 2035 emission reduction targets of the EU and member states. According to the document, the European Council maintained the medium-term climate target proposed by the European www.ehadb.cnmission - to reduce www.ehadb.cn greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 based on 1990 levels. This position paper will serve as the basic text for subsequent "tripartite talks" between the European Council and the European Parliament. The European Parliament will form its own position, and the European www.ehadb.cnmission, the European Council and the European Parliament will negotiate on the final version of the legislation. The European Council also introduced measures related to emission reductions. For example, member states can purchase international carbon credits starting from 2036 to offset the emission reduction tasks of no more than 5% of total emissions in 1990, allowing member states to flexibly deploy among different fields and policy tools to solve the problem of insufficient emission reductions in individual areas without affecting overall progress.
ADP reported on Wednesday that U.S. private sector job growth was slightly stronger than expected in October. Trade, transportation and utilities added 47,000 jobs, offsetting job losses in many other industries. Although artificial intelligence has fueled a boom in the technology industry, the www.ehadb.cnrmation services industry lost 17,000 jobs. Other industries seeing job losses include professional and business services, other services and manufacturing, which continues to struggle despite President Trump's attempts to bring factory jobs back to the United States through tariffs. All new jobs came from www.ehadb.cnpanies with at least 250 employees, with 76,000 jobs added in this category, while small businesses lost 34,000 jobs. Nella Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said that small businesses account for three-quarters of the jobs, so the lack of job growth in small businesses is worrying and is one of the reasons for the weak economic recovery. Despite limited job growth, wages are rising. The annual salary of retained employees increased by 4.5% year-on-year, the same as in September; the salary of employees who changed jobs increased by 6.7%, slightly higher than last month.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said on the 5th that there has not yet been an agreement to hold a leadership meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Trump.required conditions. Ryabkov pointed out that any such high-level summit requires in-depth preparation and careful consideration of all aspects of the issues. He admitted that as of now, several conditions for organizing the Putin-Trump meeting have not been met, but stressed that the diplomatic departments of the two countries are continuing to carry out various work in this regard.
On the 5th local time, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Duffy confirmed that the capacity of 40 major airports in the United States will be reduced by 10%. Duffy previously warned that if the government "shutdown" continues, the Department of Transportation may be forced to close some airspace to cope with personnel shortages and aviation safety pressure. The United States has long faced a shortage of air traffic controllers, and many air traffic controllers were forced to work overtime before the government shutdown. Since the "shutdown" of the federal government, approximately 13,000 air traffic controllers and approximately 50,000 employees responsible for airport security have been forced to work without pay, and an increasing number of employees are taking sick leave.
On November 5, the 8th Hongqiao International Economic Forum "Artificial Intelligence International Standards Empower Industry Upgrading" sub-forum was held at the National Convention and Exhibition Center (Shanghai). Shu Wei, deputy director of the State Administration for Market Regulation, and Chen Jie, deputy mayor of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government, attended the sub-forum and delivered speeches. At the sub-forum, Javier Garcia, Vice Chairman of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), Gilles Sonnet, Deputy Secretary-General of the International Electrotechnical www.ehadb.cnmission (IEC), Guo Xu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lu Yisi, former Director General of the European Telecommunications Standardization Institute (ETSI), as well as heads of well-known domestic and foreign www.ehadb.cnpanies such as Huawei, Siemens, ZTE, OPPO, etc., delivered speeches and held special discussions on the theme of "Artificial Intelligence International Standards Empowering Industrial Upgrading". The sub-forum also released three results including the foreign language version of national standards such as the "Artificial Intelligence Big Model", the International Cooperation Initiative on Artificial Intelligence Standards, and the English version of the "2025 Artificial Intelligence Technology Ethics and Review and Evaluation Research Report".
At the 8th Hongqiao International Economic Forum "Finance Assists Global Economic and Trade Development" sub-forum held on the afternoon of November 5 At the meeting, Vice Minister of www.ehadb.cnmerce Sheng Qiuping said that in the first three quarters of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.59 trillion yuan, and is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan for the whole year, with imports of approximately 20 trillion yuan, further stabilizing the world's second largest consumer market and import market. From the international market, trade in goods increased by 4%, trade in services increased by 7.4% in the first eight months, the international market share of exports rose to 14.2% in the first half of the year, the proportion of imports and exports to countries jointly building the "Belt and Road" rose to 51.7%, the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises increased by 16.2%, and the golden sign of investing in China continues to be polished. Foreign non-financial direct investment increased by 4.8%, ranking among the top three in the world in terms of scale. More and more Chinese www.ehadb.cnpanies are going global to participate in the global development and develop the entire production and supply chain.ball cooperation. China's economy and trade have become more deeply integrated into the global economy.
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